The level of trading activity in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies has begun to attract the attention of the general public. It seems to be everybody’s favorite subject these days. Discussion and debates about Bitcoin are raging at dinner tables across the nation and around the world. In addition, the number of articles outlining Bitcoin’s future trajectory have increased daily. In spite of the number of financial media channels having previously written it off as a mania, now provide its viewers the latest daily quotes.
It is not so much the promise of this new peer-to-peer technology that operates with no central authority or banks. Nor is it interest in the fact that a collective network carries out the issuance of bitcoins and manages the transactions that have captured the attention of the public. There are a number of early adoptors who have become extremely rich off of the increase in value of Bitcoin and the so called alt-coin market. It is the dream of quick riches that is really driving the interest.
Whenever a technology begins to reach fever pitch, as we are seeing with cryptocurrencies, a large number of self-proclaimed experts begin to appear. They are suddenly gifted with incredible prediction power. They know where the price will be in 3, 5, 10 and even 20 years. They happen to know that no government will be able to control it or stop it. They seem to know that it will eventually take over the world as the primary form of currency for all transactions.
However, these are not the only voices being heard from the rooftops. There are also those with equally impressive predictive powers. Those that seem to know where the top is. The point where Bitcoin ceases to move up, reverses and begins its long slide back towards where it began. Those that seem to know that no solutions will ever be found to the current technological challenges that a decentralized digital currency currently faces. Those that seem to know that cryptocurrencies will never be a replacement for the platform of fiat currencies on which our economies currently function. They seem to understand all the weaknesses of these digital currencies and where their limits are.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of “The Black Swan,” presents a convincing case on our inability to predict events with hard-edged analysis. At the same time he stresses to protect yourself from highly improbable events. Therefore, the first thing that should be done is to avoid the following 4 outspoken opinionated groups on the subject of Bitcoin. These groups are all supporting their own interests, which don’t always coincide with the interests of the individual.
1) The Financialists
The Central Bankers and their affiliate bankers around the world see themselves as the guardians of the global economy. In addition to providing a variety of services to the public that enable the economy to function rather smoothly on a daily basis, banks are still for-profit institutions and their principle goal is to generate profits. This is often done by way of complicated products with unsusual naming conventions. They control the money transfer and credit system, therefore, they weild a large amount of control towards the stability of the system. For this reason, they will not tolerate any outside technology that threatens their position. The initial reactions to Bitcoin were that of a pure fad. Further analysis sees them now trying to discover ways to regulate it, or create their own digital currency where they have the full control to profit from it. Their opinions are changing daily based on their confidence in how to manage its evolution. They are worried and rightly so as the initial concept of a decentralized digital currency would make many of their services redundant.
2) The Technologists
Bitcoin and the blockchain are based on technology. They have, not surprisingly, attracted the attention of the technology and developer community. They believe because it is based on technology, and they understand technology that it provides them with more powerful forsight. Once the value of Bitcoin began to rise, the startup community began to move into action and started developing a variety of ideas such as wallets, new exchanges, a variety of platforms etc. It has now become the hot area to be involved in. So hot that public companies that have nothing to do with Bitcoin or the blockchain have changed their names to incorporate the term blockchain only to see their shares rise immediately. The technologist are on a crusade and want you to join the crusade. However, it is wise not to forget that at one point there was once a product called a Betamax cassette which was superior to the competing VHS cassette only to lose out and be banished to history. Apple computer produced a much higher quality product and software than the PC and Microsoft option at the time. Apple computer only managed to acquire 5% of the PC market, much to the surprise of the followers who understood the value behind the technology.
3) The Evangelists
The leader of this group and one of the most vocal has been Andreas Antonopoulos. Antonopoulos became involved with Bitcoin in 2012. He has written two books on the subject, describing in detail the technical rules governing Bitcoin in a way that a novice could understand, and has given more than 200 talks (many of them free) about Bitcoin. Antonopoulos obtained his degree in Computer Science and Data Communications and Distributed Systems from University College London. With his help the Bitcoin evangelists have an ever increasing choir. Some of them understand the technology and find its possibilities fascinating. There are the bandwagon jumpers who want to join the club and fit in with the “cool crowd.” There are those that see it as a great way to transfer money around without the peering eye of the government, or truly a new medium of exchange not governed by any central authority.
Then there are also those who have dreams of striking it rich. Ironically, Antonopoulos, after having spent the last five years of his life traversing the globe and educating people about Bitcoin found himself not only NOT taking advantage of the run up but found himself in debt, until a wrath of Bitcoin evangelists donated to his cause. This came just at the moment when he was questioning what he was doing it all for.
4) The Governmentalists
Governments are the farthest from being Bitcoin advocates. This is not because they don’t believe in digital currencies. In fact, they would garner more control by ridding the economy of hard currency and make everything digital. This would enable them to gain tighter control of the money supply or increse their efficiency of tax collecting. What they don’t appreciate is loss of control. The idea of a collective decentralized managing transactions and digital currency issuance is an idea that they will never accept. Why? They require a centralised authority (which is them). We wrote about the ways in which governments could shutdown cryptocurrencies. It is, therefore, no surpise that they are fighting vehemently against the idea.
So who should you listen to? This is one of those situations where you must truly take matters into your own hands. You have to acquire the knowledge necessary, educate yourself and decide for yourself how this new system of digital currency could affect you personally. This means choosing your information sources carefully. If you do listen to any of these groups, be cynical and don’t take what they say at face value. Double check and do your own research. Depending on who you speak to, you will be labelled as blind if you don’t buy into it or labelled as an idiot if you do. In the end, it is the market as a whole who will ultimately decide the fate of cryptocurrencies.